Confirmation Bias: Leaning to live with it

We all like to be right. But do we try a little too hard to prove it sometimes?

Recently, I have become more aware of confirmation bias – and it’s power to influence coaches’ judgements. None of us our immune to it. If you think you are, think again!

And since it’s inevitable…how do we negotiate it – we still have to make judgment calls after all!

Below, I explore some key areas that confirmation bias can arise.

Coaching technique

A typical net…

Coach: “Just try and move your feet a bit more”.

Player: After a few more misses, smashes the next ball out the middle of the bat.

Coach: “Shot! See what I mean”?

We should probably wait a bit longer before congratulating ourselves. I remember in the Level 2 coaching course, one mantra was hammered home regularly:

Multiple viewings, from multiple angles.

The idea: in order to coach effectively, a coach needs to be thorough. To make an intervention, better have firm evidence to back it up.

If we’re all being completely honest…do we always take the time to do this? I certainly don’t.

How to respond:

  1. Take videos: I have been taking far more video footage recently. I use this to confirm points I have made in that session. I was surprised how often even a trained eye can be mistaken. Your instincts can often change on reflection.
  2. Look for patterns: Give feedback and intervene based on a body of evidence. Avoid coaching “ball-by-ball”.
  3. Move around: Side-on angles and front-on angles. There are so many moving parts…and you can only view 1 or 2 at a time. Make sure your first observation isn’t an illusion.
  4. Get to the root of the issue: Is it technical, tactical, mental or physical?

“Trouble-makers”…

Let’s be honest. Certain players know exactly how to push our buttons.

Experience will condition you to keep an eye out for these players. However, there is a fine line between “nipping bad behaviour in the bud”, seeping into pre-empting bad behaviour.

We want to be impartial. It is easy to jump the gun, and be too quick to rebuke certain players over others. Whether it’s justified or not, players are quick to perceive unfairness.

When a coach and player don’t see eye-to-eye, their relationship can deteriorate fast. Conflict becomes almost inevitable. In this state, even the mildest comments can be taken the wrong way: and both parties start to think, “here we go again”.

How to respond:

  1. Start with a “clean slate”: This is one of my mantras. No matter how troubling the past session was, don’t allow your frustration to spill over into the next. I like to think I follow this most of the time.
  2. Seek the help of colleagues: Sometimes, the same message from a different (or new) voice can have the impact you are hoping for. We don’t often have equal rapport with every player. Some relate better to a certain coach.
    Parents can relate to this one!
  3. Talk to your players: You get more honesty and respect from them away from the group. And it’s easier to convey your point. It might help you see a different side to them as well – or an insight that explains the reason behind their challenging behaviour.

Rationalising failures and successes

Show of hands…Who thinks England have had a successful Ashes series?

No? Didn’t think so! But why?

Responses range. But whether it’s personnel (captain, coach, line-up), structure (formats, scheduling) or fundamental re-thinking of our approach, they are presented less as opinions (“to me…”), but matters of fact.

To us, it seems all too obvious. The problem is, it’s equally obvious to someone else with the opposite view.

How to respond:

  1. Sell your opinion: And be prepared for pushback and challenges. Acknowledge there are trade-offs to your vision, but “on balance” you still believe in it. We probably don’t do this enough in coaching.
  2. Don’t lurch to extremes: How many new football managers have promised to “instil discipline”. And how many have promised the opposite, to “let the players express themselves more”. There’s more to it than moving away from the previous regime.
  3. Different people, different priorities: We all watch and play the game for different reasons. And this affects our vision for the future.

Team cultures

When a team wins, they are often quick to claim it’s down to more than simply being “better on the day”.

They have out-thought the opposition. Their strategy was right at crucial moments. They simply had superior character, or will-to-win.

However, when teams are consistently losing, they tend to draw different conclusions. Focus is all too often on individuals – who aren’t embodying the winning mentality.

The result: Teams can often be homogenous in character. The same players find themselves yo-yoing in and out of the side. When they return to the fold, they struggle to escape the sense of being judged. Others get the benefit of the doubt.

How to respond:

Remember people are different: We process emotions differently. We are motivated differently. The same will-to-win can be expressed in different ways (for example introverts or extroverts).
Too often, people expect others to respond to events identically to themselves. If they don’t, it can be seen as a character flaw.

Responsibility is a two-way street: A player should rightly be asked to live up to standards. But the best teams create an environment that makes them comfortable in their own skin. A poor team doesn’t – and nobody can perform in that setting.

Selection: “Gut feel”

We have more data to inform us than ever before. However, for all the detail, dilemmas remain. This is because coaches still frequently (and indeed have to) “go with their gut”.

“Gut feel” is shaped by past experiences…well, sometimes a past experience. A single anecdote can shape your view. A gritty performance in adversity, not reflected in the numbers on paper, can convince a coach that a young talent has “character”.

On the flipside, a missed chance, or mad moment, can lead to the opposite conclusion: “not up to it”, “flatters to deceive”.

Gut feel can also be influenced by your own ideals…on what makes a good cricketer? Some coaches and teams are guilty of picking like-minded players – losing diversity and balance.

I will give a personal account of this. For too long I mistook players’ confidence for arrogance. I had a subconscious bias towards humbler players, who got their head down and quietly went about their business. Experience has taught me to relate to all personality types better.

How to respond

  1. Remember: But remember, even if you are right, your observation is a single, personal perspective. Colleagues may not have seen that snapshot…and have their own snapshots that you haven’t seen.
    Get a range of opinions, to challenge your own. You may or may not change your mind.
  2. Give praise when praise is due: I have seen many coaches overlook 4 or 5 good moments from a player…before latching onto their first mistake.
  3. Prove me wrong”: I’ve sometimes had success by being open with my concerns to the player. With certain individuals, this is a powerful motivator to prove me wrong.
    Players aren’t caricatures. They can grow and pick up new disciplines. It reflects well on you if they change your assertion. Would you rather be right or effective?
  4. Provide opportunities to be proved wrong: This applies far more to junior than senior cricket. But to me…if a player sees themselves as an opening batter, for example, they deserve the chance to pursue that role.
    By all means point out where they need to improve. But denying them the opportunity doesn’t prove you right.

Tactics

Some captains are more attacking. Some are more defensive.

Some like to chop and change. Others prefer discipline and simplicity.

None of these are wrong!

Coaching tactics is fascinatingly complicated. Because it doesn’t only involve debate, followed by an answer. But that answer can vary. Once an answer is reached, it requires buy-in from the whole team to be effective.

Have you ever captained a team, and felt that one player is undermining you? Do you get a sense that that player is itching to be proved right? Is this player first to chip in with thought “where we went wrong”, after a defeat?

How to handle this

Involve the team in planning: Have group discussions about tactics. Sometimes players respond better in matches if they know the bigger picture.

Different leaders in training: Test out the captaincy skills in others. At the very least, they may find out it’s not as easy as it looks!!

Trust the player: They have to bowl or bat to this plan. They have to be confident in executing it.

Solutions

Here’s the difficult bit. Confirmation bias exists…but we still have to make big calls.

How do we do this, without losing conviction in our opinions? I have struggled with this. On occasion in my early career, I was too quick to defer to a colleague – too timid with my own views. Later on I would attempt to put my foot down. But this led to bouts of stubbornness. It took me a long to find my own way.

  1. Be a “salesman”: If you have a strong opinion, try to win people over to your side.
  2. Challenge your opinions: Acknowledging other points of view is different to conceding that they are right.
  3. Surround yourself by different people: They will expose you to views outside your tunnel vision. Diversity is strength.
  4. Beware of opportunism: Or selective memories (this can be subconscious). Are you massaging the evidence to fit your conclusion?
  5. Don’t undermine each other: Cricket is a sport without a single manual. There are different methods to tackle the same problem.
    Coaching styles also vary. But a good coach has method behind their actions.
    However, some players and coaches prefer being” right”, to the detriment of the team. Don’t be that person.

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